CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-01-08T15:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-01-08T15:48ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43849/-1
CME Note: [Tentatively closed as arrival] Faint CME seen (mostly in difference imagery) to the E in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1, covered by the data gap in STEREO A. Source: eruption N of AR 14336 (S10E33), seen as dark moving ejecta in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2026-01-08T14:48Z and centered initially ~(N03E30). There could be eastward deflection of this CME because of a small coronal hole just west of its source. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was possibly swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME:2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. The shock is followed after 2026-01-10T23:30Z by a flux rope. It is possible that this complex arrival signature also incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T15:48Z, although there is no clear indication of it.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-11T03:39Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 25.58 hour(s)
Difference: -8.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-01-09T18:01Z
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